Where did the sprout seeds originate

Posted: June 27th, 2011 - 1:47pm by Doug Powell

As the death toll in the German E. coli O104 outbreak reached 48 and the sick approached 4,000, investigators have provided no clues on a key question: where did the seeds for sprouting originate?

Does anyone know?

"Investigations are ongoing, but the first findings suggest that locally grow sprouts might be involved," the WHO said in a statement Monday of the outbreak. It said that, of eight French cases so far, three of them carried the same bacteria strains as in Germany.

"Intensive traceback is under way to identify a possible common source of the German and French sprout seeds," it added. But "other potential vehicles are also under investigation

There was "no direct supply relationship" between the farm in Germany at the center of the outbreak and the British company, Thompson & Morgan, German spokeswoman Bansbach said.

Paul Hansord, managing director of Thompson & Morgan, said last night that it was “highly unlikely” that seeds supplied by his firm were to blame for the outbreak and insisted he had no plans to recall the products from shops and customers who have already bought them.

Environmental health officers have taken samples of the seeds from the company’s premises in Ipswich, Suffolk, so they can be tested for any trace of the E coli bug. The results are expected within four days.

“We have sold many hundreds of thousands of packets of sprouting seeds to home gardeners for several years without any reported problems.
“In particular we have sold around 100,000 packets of sprouting seeds in France from more than 500 outlets just since last November.

“All of the seeds came from the same batch and have been on sale in France for many months so if there had been a problem with them, we would have expected it to have emerged earlier.”

That’s nice. Where do the seeds come from? And are they circling the globe so that more outbreaks can be expected?
 

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Comments

Harry Hamil says:

Where did you get your training in statistics, Dr. Powell? Mr. Hansord stated Thompson & Morgan's logic clearly. It has sold many of hundreds of thousands of packets without any reported problems--over 100,000 in France alone since November. "All of the seeds came from the same batch and have been on sale in France for many months so if there had been a problem with them, we would have expected it to have emerged earlier.” If what he said is true, the probability of a single outbreak due to contaminated seeds is very close to zero. Unfortunately, during the 18 months I worked 60+ hours per week on food safety regulation, primarily S 510 and the FSMA, I found that supporters of the FSMA approach to food safety regulation showed a similar lack of understanding (and, in some cases, disregard for) the data and statistics developed from it. As I have a BS in math and spent 35 years teasing meaning out of numbers in my career in insurance and securities, I urge you and your fellow food safety academicians to improve your education in and understanding of math and statistics.

Posted on June 28th, 2011 - 9:38am

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